Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

(7:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to CAR 26, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.63 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model