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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 34 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 8-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.70 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP