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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 34 – New Orleans Saints 38

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen to NO 30 for 16 yards (91-K.Edebali). Pass 16, YAC 0 New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model