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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 5-K.Forbath 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model