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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 41
Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 14
What Actually Happened
(1:33) 1-C.Newton left end to NO 11 for 30 yards (31-J.Byrd).
The Three Options
GO
+1.58 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.16 EP
- 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -2.10 EP
KICK
-0.26 EP
- 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 48% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT
-0.08 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
