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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA
35.6%
NYJ
64.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): -0.039 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
NYJ 24
Projected margin: NYJ by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIA

Ja'Wuan James T Out Toe
Chris McCain LB Doubtful Hip
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Knee
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Ankle
Koa Misi LB Questionable Abdomen
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Neck
Kelvin Sheppard LB Questionable Hamstring
Walt Aikens S Probable Ankle
Jay Ajayi RB Probable Elbow
Branden Albert T Probable Not Injury Related
Reshad Jones S Probable Pectoral
Brice McCain CB Probable Knee

NYJ

Darrelle Revis CB Out Concussion
Dion Bailey S Doubtful Ankle
Kellen Davis TE Probable Not Injury Related
Demario Davis LB Probable Ribs
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Nick Mangold C Probable Hand
Brandon Marshall WR Probable Toe
Calvin Pace LB Probable Toe
Ryan Quigley P Probable right Knee
Sheldon Richardson DT Probable Hamstring
Buster Skrine CB Probable Shoulder
Devin Smith WR Probable Foot
Marcus Williams CB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
NYJ 38

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:57 TD NYJ (1:57) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 15-B.Marshall for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 00:14 TD NYJ (:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 19-D.Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 08:50 TD NYJ (8:50) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 87-E.Decker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NYJ 20
  • Q3 02:35 TD MIA (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 14-J.Landry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 21
  • Q4 12:08 TD NYJ (12:08) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 09:41 TD NYJ (9:41) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – NYJ 34
  • Q4 04:56 TD MIA (4:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-G.Jennings for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-M.Catapano]. MIA 13 – NYJ 35
  • Q4 02:47 FG NYJ (2:47) 8-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIA 14 – NYJ 38
  • Q4 00:14 TD MIA (:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-D.Parker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – NYJ 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:09) 33-C.Ivory right guard to NYJ 44 for -1 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 93-N.Suh).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 50%

    (11:39) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to NYJ 3, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-28-Bo.McCain.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (10:06) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to MIA 45, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-B.Grimes ran ob at 50 for 5 yards.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (:41) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NYJ 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 31 for 8 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:38) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-B.Grimes to MIA 33 for 11 yards (54-J.Lattimore; 45-R.Miles).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:53) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to NYJ 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 35 for 5 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (10:02) 4-R.Quigley punts 33 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry pushed ob at MIA 20 for 3 yards (54-J.Lattimore).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:50) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NYJ 16, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 21 for 5 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:13) 4-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 28%

    (2:46) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to NYJ 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:58) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to MIA 25 for 58 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:17) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to NYJ 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 28 for 9 yards (42-S.Paysinger; 46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:23) 4-R.Quigley punts 57 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-B.Grimes to MIA 46 for 28 yards.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:21) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to NYJ 34, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 45 for 11 yards (31-M.Thomas; 42-S.Paysinger).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (4:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-G.Jennings for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-M.Catapano].

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

    (2:47) 8-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-D.Parker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.