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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 40

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to NYJ 3, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-28-Bo.McCain.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.19 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model