Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 73

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(6:13) 4-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model