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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:41) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NYJ 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 31 for 8 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model