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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to MIA 25 for 58 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model