Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 67

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(14:38) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-B.Grimes to MIA 33 for 11 yards (54-J.Lattimore; 45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.33 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model