Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

(7:50) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NYJ 16, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 21 for 5 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.66 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model