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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to NYJ 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 28 for 9 yards (42-S.Paysinger; 46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model