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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 28

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to NYJ 34, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 45 for 11 yards (31-M.Thomas; 42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.28 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model