Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- DEN offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- CHI defense: -0.010 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to CHI: Jay Cutler (CHI) +0.153 vs Brock Osweiler (DEN) +0.138 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Brock Osweiler in place of Peyton Manning)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 11
DEN
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:26 TD DEN (12:26) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 88-D.Thomas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – CHI 0
- Q2 10:37 FG CHI (10:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DEN 7 – CHI 3
- Q2 06:18 FG CHI (6:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DEN 7 – CHI 6
- Q2 00:04 FG DEN (:04) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 10 – CHI 6
- Q3 00:54 FG CHI (:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DEN 10 – CHI 9
- Q4 11:47 TD DEN (11:47) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 14-C.Latimer for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – CHI 9
- Q4 00:29 TD CHI (:29) 98-M.Unrein reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – CHI 15
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 69%
(13:59) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to DEN 26, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%
(6:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to DEN 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 77%
(10:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to CHI 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-51-T.Davis.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%
(6:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(5:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DEN 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 42%
(3:47) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 30 yards to DEN 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 21%
(12:09) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 71%
(10:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to DEN 48, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 39%
(9:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(4:27) (Run formation) 53-J.Ferentz and 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 23-R.Hillman left end to CHI 2 for no gain (59-C.Jones). Measurement.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%
(:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(10:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Langford (21-A.Talib).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 49 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 25%
(4:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 25 yards to CHI 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 73 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 35 for 4 yards (30-D.Bruton).
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