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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 44

Chicago Bears 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(6:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to DEN 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model