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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 9 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(10:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 33-J.Langford (21-A.Talib).

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model