Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 95

Denver Broncos 7 – Chicago Bears 6

(5:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DEN 49, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.02 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 95, worth -5.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model