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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 51

Denver Broncos 10 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(12:09) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.91 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model