Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 73

Denver Broncos 17 – Chicago Bears 9

(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 35 for 4 yards (30-D.Bruton).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.35 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model