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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 49

Denver Broncos 17 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 25 yards to CHI 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model