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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 43

Denver Broncos 10 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.09 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP