4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 2

Denver Broncos 10 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Run formation) 53-J.Ferentz and 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 23-R.Hillman left end to CHI 2 for no gain (59-C.Jones). Measurement.

The Three Options

GO +3.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model