Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- LAC offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CHI offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.151 vs Jay Cutler (CHI) +0.112 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
CHI
SD
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:55 TD LAC (6:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 39-D.Woodhead for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SD 6
- Q2 10:11 TD LAC (10:11) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Verrett at LAC 32. 22-J.Verrett for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – SD 13
- Q2 06:57 TD CHI (6:57) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 83-M.Bennett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SD 13
- Q2 00:05 FG LAC (:05) 2-J.Lambo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. CHI 7 – SD 16
- Q4 14:06 TD CHI (14:06) 33-J.Langford up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – SD 16
- Q4 07:55 FG LAC (7:55) 2-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. CHI 14 – SD 19
- Q4 03:24 TD CHI (3:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 86-Z.Miller for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – SD 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%
(11:35) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 18%
(13:25) 5-M.Scifres punts 35 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 28 for 10 yards (33-G.Ducre, 51-K.Emanuel).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 60%
(11:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to LAC 20, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 17 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:36) 5-M.Scifres punts 33 yards to CHI 42, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 23%
(2:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to LAC 9, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon. PENALTY on LAC-99-C.Law, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 9.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:38) 5-M.Scifres punts 49 yards to CHI 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 40 for 12 yards (53-K.Conner).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%
(9:31) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 25%
(7:25) 5-M.Scifres punts 42 yards to CHI 7, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(7:55) 2-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.