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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 28

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model