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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 50

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to LAC 9, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon. PENALTY on LAC-99-C.Law, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LAC 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model