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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 64

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to LAC 20, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP