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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 5-M.Scifres punts 33 yards to CHI 42, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model