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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 5-M.Scifres punts 49 yards to CHI 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 40 for 12 yards (53-K.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model