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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 5-M.Scifres punts 35 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-M.Windt. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 28 for 10 yards (33-G.Ducre, 51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model