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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 5-M.Scifres punts 42 yards to CHI 7, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model