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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 16

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-R.Gould 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model