Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- TB offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.121 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TB defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
TB
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:58 FG ATL (7:58) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 0 – ATL 3
- Q1 02:08 FG TB (2:08) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – ATL 3
- Q2 03:36 FG TB (3:36) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 6 – ATL 3
- Q2 00:35 TD TB (:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 84-C.Brate for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – ATL 3
- Q3 06:11 TD TB (6:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – ATL 3
- Q3 00:19 TD ATL (:19) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 83-J.Tamme for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – ATL 9
- Q4 05:00 FG ATL (5:00) 3-M.Bryant 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 20 – ATL 13
- Q4 00:23 TD ATL (:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – ATL 19
- Q5 07:57 FG TB (7:57) 10-C.Barth 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 23 – ATL 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%
(10:08) 2-M.Ryan right guard to TB 12 for 2 yards (92-W.Gholston). PENALTY on TB-23-C.Conte, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at TB 12.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(7:58) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 34%
(3:50) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%
(2:08) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.
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Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(3:36) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.
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Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:11) 5-J.Schum punts 53 yards to ATL 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to 50 for 24 yards (46-J.Lane).
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Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:17) 5-J.Schum punts 38 yards to ATL 18, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 17 for -1 yards (89-R.Shepard).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(8:21) 24-D.Freeman right tackle to ATL 45 for 2 yards (90-H.Melton).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 6 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%
(5:00) 3-M.Bryant 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 60 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(2:00) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 40 for 0 yards (37-R.Allen).