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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 14

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 2-M.Ryan right guard to TB 12 for 2 yards (92-W.Gholston). PENALTY on TB-23-C.Conte, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at TB 12.

The Three Options

GO +3.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.34 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model