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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 5-J.Schum punts 53 yards to ATL 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to 50 for 24 yards (46-J.Lane).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model