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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 24-D.Freeman right tackle to ATL 45 for 2 yards (90-H.Melton).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model