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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 5, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP