4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 6

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 3-M.Bryant 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP