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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model