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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 5-J.Schum punts 38 yards to ATL 18, Center-48-A.DePaola. 14-E.Weems to ATL 17 for -1 yards (89-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.87 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model