4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model