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2-4 HC Jason Garrett
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New York Giants

4-3 HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 16:25 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DAL
36.1%
NYG
63.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NYG: Eli Manning (NYG) +0.133 vs Matt Cassel (DAL) -0.248 EPA/dropback (DAL starting Matt Cassel in place of Brandon Weeden)
  • NYG offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • DAL on 8 more days rest than NYG
  • NYG defense: +0.013 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22 15–29
–
NYG 24 17–31
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

DAL

Dez Bryant WR Doubtful Foot
James Hanna TE Questionable Ankle
Brice Butler WR Probable Hamstring
Randy Gregory DE Probable Ankle
Greg Hardy DE Probable Illness
David Irving DE Probable Back
Danny McCray S Probable Not Injury Related

NYG

Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Prince Amukamara CB Out Pectoral
Uani 'Unga LB Questionable Neck
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Hamstring
Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Neck
Trumaine McBride CB Questionable Groin
Brandon McGee CB Questionable Back
Robert Ayers DE Probable Hamstring
Jon Beason LB Probable Knee
Johnathan Hankins DT Probable Calf
Devon Kennard LB Probable Hamstring
Rueben Randle WR Probable Hamstring
Trevin Wade CB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
NYG 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:29 FG DAL (5:29) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 11:10 TD NYG (11:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-O.Darkwa left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – NYG 6
  • Q2 07:36 FG DAL (7:36) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 02:22 TD DAL (2:22) 20-D.McFadden right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – NYG 7
  • Q2 01:08 FG NYG (1:08) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. DAL 13 – NYG 10
  • Q3 11:34 TD NYG (11:34) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right intended for 83-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie at NYG 42. 41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – NYG 16
  • Q3 03:23 FG NYG (3:23) 3-J.Brown 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. DAL 13 – NYG 20
  • Q4 07:25 TD DAL (7:25) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass deep right to 15-D.Street for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-G.Selvie]. DAL 19 – NYG 20
  • Q4 07:14 TD NYG 5-D.Bailey kicks 65 yards from DAL 35 to NYG 0. 17-D.Harris for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – NYG 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 32%

    (10:51) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (5:29) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:24) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to DAL 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 29 for 7 yards (17-D.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 15%

    (14:15) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to NYG 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%

    (7:36) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:44) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to DAL 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 72%

    (1:08) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:24) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to NYG 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (3:23) 3-J.Brown 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 28%

    (12:21) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 70%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right to 84-J.Hanna to NYG 24 for 6 yards (31-T.Wade, 54-J.Casillas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:36) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYG-19-M.White at DAL 16. 19-M.White to DAL 16 for no gain (11-C.Beasley).

    See the full breakdown →