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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 16

New York Giants 17 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 3-J.Brown 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model