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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 27 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYG-19-M.White at DAL 16. 19-M.White to DAL 16 for no gain (11-C.Beasley).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.42 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model