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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 20 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right to 84-J.Hanna to NYG 24 for 6 yards (31-T.Wade, 54-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.57 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP