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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 46

New York Giants 20 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model