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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 63

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to DAL 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 29 for 7 yards (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.35 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP