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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 12

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.25 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP