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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to NYG 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model