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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model